Primary axis · X
Fragmentation Intensity
Low = commercial pragmatism prevails. High = bloc separation deepens. Currently trending: High.
Primary axis · Y
Automation Maturity
Low = manual-heavy, AI adoption lagging. High = AI-native operations scaled. Currently trending: Rising, uneven.
Fragmentation Intensity
Trade architecture, sanctions, investment screening, export controls
Accelerating — tilts toward Scenarios 1 & 4
WTO · RTA Database
Regional Trade Agreements in Force
354
↑ 27% since 2015 — multilateral progress stalled
Amber: acceleration structural (320)
Red: bloc separation (350)
GTA · Global Trade Alert
Trade-Distortive Interventions per Year
3,600+
↑ 200% since 2015 — structural, not cyclical
Amber: elevated & structural (2,000/yr)
Red: crisis-level protectionism (3,500/yr)
CFIUS · US Treasury
CFIUS Foreign Investment Cases Reviewed
342
↑ 139% since 2015 — EU screening expanding in parallel
Amber: significant tightening (250)
Red: extreme screening (330)
Automation Maturity
Industrial robotics, AI investment, enterprise deployment readiness
Rising but two-speed — leaders pulling ahead
IFR · World Robotics 2025
Industrial Robot Installations (000s)
542k
↑ 113% since 2015 — Asia accounts for 74% of deployments
Milestone: 500k/yr consecutive — maturity signal
Stanford HAI · AI Index 2025
Global Corporate AI Investment ($bn)
$252bn
↑ 44.5% YoY in 2024 — private AI investment accelerating
Milestone: $100bn — enterprise-scale AI investment
WEF · Future of Jobs 2025
Employers Expecting AI Disruption to Jobs by 2030 (%)
86%
↑ from 50% in 2020 survey — organizational readiness remains bottleneck
Milestone: 70% — majority expecting transformation
Energy & Carbon Economics
Carbon pricing coverage, revenue, transport electrification — modifier of distance economics
Rising structurally — reinforces Scenario 2
World Bank · Carbon Pricing 2025
Carbon Pricing Coverage (% global emissions)
28%
↑ 115% since 2015 — coverage widening across jurisdictions
Amber: material trade impact (25%)
Target: Paris 2030 goal (50%)
World Bank · Carbon Pricing 2025
Carbon Pricing Revenue Generated ($bn)
$100bn+
↑ 285% since 2015 — becoming a first-order cost variable
Milestone: $100bn crossed in 2024 — first-order cost variable
IEA · Global EV Outlook 2025
Electric Medium & Heavy Truck Sales (000s)
90k
↑ 80% YoY in 2024 — but low base, concentrated in China
Target: ~200k — approx. 10% of new fleet sales
Current Evidence Tilt — April 2026
Based on the above indicators, where the evidence currently points across the four scenarios.
Primary planning case
① Fragmented & Autonomous
Fragmentation: ↑ High · Automation: ↑ Rising
High compliance burden, dual-bloc architectures, AI absorbs complexity
High compliance burden, dual-bloc architectures, AI absorbs complexity
Strongest evidence
Strong adjacent case
② Green & Constrained
Fragmentation: ↔ Moderate · Energy cost: ↑ Rising
Carbon cost reshapes distance economics, near-shoring premium
Carbon cost reshapes distance economics, near-shoring premium
Building case
Longer-term upside
③ Autonomous Flat World
Fragmentation: ↓ Easing · Automation: ↑↑ Breakthrough
AI-native orchestration rewrites distance economics by 2035–40
AI-native orchestration rewrites distance economics by 2035–40
Plausible, not near-term
Downside stress case
④ Stagnant & Exposed
Fragmentation: ↑ High · Automation: ↓ Stalled
Network duplication without productivity relief, buffers replace intelligence
Network duplication without productivity relief, buffers replace intelligence
Underprepared risk