September 2026  ·  Opening keynote

AI transformation

The supply chain of the future

KA
Knut Alicke
Tangier Logistics Days, Tanger Med
25 September 2026
Download slides (PDF, 2.6 MB) Browse the slides
AI and GenAI will disrupt the way we operate
Event
Tangier Logistics Days 2026, 8th edition
Theme
Augmented supply chain: people and data, scarce and strategic resources
Format
Opening keynote, 30 min
Audience
Supply chain and logistics leaders from the region and beyond

Ten years ago, when we wanted to talk about supply chain disruption, we referred to Fukushima. Today we just open the newspaper. Hormuz effectively closed, carriers back on the Cape route, the Rhine at a record low, tariff regimes rewritten by courts within months. Very little of this is a black swan. Most of it is a grey rhino: predictable, with huge impact. And still we are not prepared.

Opening the 8th Tangier Logistics Days at Tanger Med, I connected two forces: geopolitical fragmentation and the maturity of AI and automation. Where they meet decides what the supply chain of the future looks like.

The argument

Put fragmentation and automation on a matrix and the most likely outcome is neither the old global network nor a frictionless autonomous world. It is fragmented and autonomous: regional supply chains that duplicate networks, systems and planning, and that can only afford this duplication because automation absorbs the cost. If automation stalls while fragmentation continues, we end up with brittle, expensive networks that run on manual firefighting.

This is why I see AI as the container moment of our field. The economics have already shifted. In late 2022, 1,000 EUR bought around 50 million tokens. Today the same money buys around 50 billion. Analysing three years of demand history for 10,000 SKUs costs roughly 3 EUR. The question is no longer whether we can afford AI. It is what we do with it.

We are moving through three generations: traditional AI that predicts and optimises, generative AI that answers when asked, and agentic AI that receives a goal, plans the steps and executes them in our systems. For planners, the most immediate change is GenAI as the interface to the planning systems we paid for but never fully used. The planner asks why there is excess inventory in Europe. The digital analyst translates the question into queries and models and comes back with an explanation and a recommendation. The black box opens.

I tested how far this goes myself and vibe coded an end-to-end planning app in 30 hours. It is an MVP, not an industrial system. But it shows where the value sits: in deep business knowledge that guides and challenges the model. Let standard software provide the core, and let the subject matter experts build the specifics on top.

What stops impact is rarely the technology. It is the organisation: pilots that are overscoped, management without a realistic picture of what the tools can do, and above all a lack of curiosity. If your board uses AI every day in a meaningful way, you are ready to start a pilot.

The slides

All 18 slides. Use the arrows or swipe, click a slide to open it in full size, or download the complete deck as PDF.

Title slide: Tangier Logistics Days, AI transformation, the supply chain of the future
1 / 18 · Tangier Logistics Days: AI transformation, the supply chain of the future.
Grey rhinos and black swans in a container port
2 / 18 · Grey rhinos and black swans: most disruptions are predictable.
Overview of simultaneous disruptions across geopolitics, trade, chokepoints, technology, climate and insurance
3 / 18 · Welcome to the new normal: we have never faced this many simultaneous disruptions.
Five forces reshaping the global supply chain to 2040
4 / 18 · Five forces reshaping the global supply chain to 2040.
Four scenarios for 2040 by automation maturity and geopolitical fragmentation
5 / 18 · Four scenarios for 2040. The primary case: Fragmented & Autonomous.
Supply chain has a seat at the table: quote by Börje Ekholm, CEO of Ericsson
6 / 18 · Supply chain has a seat at the table.
AI and GenAI will disrupt the way we operate
7 / 18 · AI and GenAI will disrupt the way we operate, similar to the container or the internet.
Chart of AI tokens per 1,000 EUR from 2022 to 2026
8 / 18 · Same money, exponentially more AI: tokens per 1,000 EUR.
Three generations of AI: traditional, generative and agentic
9 / 18 · Three generations of AI reshaping how operations actually works.
Chart of planning activity, traditional versus AI-enabled
10 / 18 · We will spend most of our time on solving problems and interacting with customers.
GenAI as the natural-language layer between planner and planning systems
11 / 18 · GenAI opens the black box between planner and planning systems.
How I vibe coded an end-to-end planning app in 30 hours
12 / 18 · How I vibe coded an E2E planning app in 30 hours.
Three case studies of agentic AI in procurement, complexity reduction and petrochemical digital twins
13 / 18 · Case studies: agentic AI in procurement, complexity reduction and digital twins.
Infographic: one impossible spreadsheet, 1,200 agents, one hacked company
14 / 18 · Agents don't need to be malicious to cause damage.
What needs to happen to ensure impact from AI
15 / 18 · What needs to happen to ensure impact from (Gen)AI.
Five moves supply chain leaders should consider now, each with a Monday question
16 / 18 · Five moves supply chain leaders should consider now.
Ayrton Senna quote: you cannot overtake fifteen cars when it is sunny, but you can when it is raining
17 / 18 · Ayrton Senna: you cannot overtake fifteen cars in sunny weather, but you can when it is raining.
Thank you slide with further reading on Substack
18 / 18 · Thank you, with further reading on Substack.
1 / 18

Five moves supply chain leaders should consider now

Each move comes with a question to answer on Monday morning.

01Design for optionality

A modular network plus pre-qualified alternatives, instead of one point-optimised supply chain.

The Monday questionCan you switch your top five categories to a pre-approved alternative within 90 days?

02Build a decision-grade data foundation

Data is abundant, insights are often missing. Fix your master data and push for resilience-relevant insights.

The Monday questionCan you run a full-network scenario in one working week without manual data assembly?

03Invest in AI and automation as complexity absorber

AI in planning and robots in execution make resilience (dual sourcing, dual sites) affordable. And ensure curiosity.

The Monday questionIs your AI roadmap complete? Do you work on increasing the curiosity of your people?

04Price the world you operate in

From simplistic freight cost to carbon, energy, war-risk insurance, financing by corridor and critical minerals.

The Monday questionDoes your landed-cost model include carbon, war risk and financing by corridor?

05Embed in governance

A quarterly geopolitical and technology review in S&OP, and days of awareness, survival and recovery for every critical node.

The Monday questionCan you state the three numbers for your ten most important suppliers and own sites?

Ayrton Senna put it best: you cannot overtake fifteen cars in sunny weather, but you can when it is raining. It is raining.

The complete deck
18 slides · PDF · 2.6 MB · English
Download PDF

Further reading

More keynotes

Thanks to Ali Berrada, Yann de Feraudy and Logismed for the invitation, to Amine Berrada for a perfect organization, and to Tanger Med for hosting a conference that is very much down to the shop floor.

Discussion on LinkedIn. Speaking enquiries: knut@alicke-scm.com.